Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Championship Group - 34

Union St. Gilloise–Gent

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 22 April 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union St. Gilloise		Gent
18	Shots	3
5	Shots on target	0
12	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	1
2	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
439	Passes	330
326	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union St. Gilloise 1.89 · Gent 0.74. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Union St. Gilloise 18 · Gent 3; on target 5 and 0.
Union St. Gilloise kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Lothar D'hondt, Belgium→

4.39

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.4%: “Union St. Gilloise to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.00 for Union St. Gilloise, 0.66 for Gent.
The highest double chance value is 90.0% (1X — Union St. Gilloise win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,105 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union St. Gilloise to win69.4%

Draw20.5%

Gent to win10.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Union St. Gilloise lead at half-time47.7%

Level at half-time40.2%

Gent lead at half-time12.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Union St. Gilloise ahead or level87.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Gent ahead52.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1105 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union St. Gilloise: at least 11Actual: 13
Gent: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Union St. Gilloise: at least 6Actual: 9
Gent: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score1.89

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Gent's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gent score0.74

Attack: Gent score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.5%1–013.3%1–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.