Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Championship Group - 34

Club Brugge KV–KV Mechelen

6–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 22 April 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Club Brugge KVH. Vetlesen (assist: Carlos Forbs)
10'KV MechelenM. Konate (assist: M. van Brederode)
46'Club Brugge KVAleksandar Stanković
56'Club Brugge KVCarlos Forbs (assist: H. Vanaken)
60'Club Brugge KVN. Tresoldi (assist: H. Vetlesen)
78'Club Brugge KVH. Vanaken

Match statistics

Match statistics
Club Brugge KV		KV Mechelen
23	Shots	8
11	Shots on target	2
17	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
62%	Possession	38%
544	Passes	328
463	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Club Brugge KV 2.13 · KV Mechelen 0.84. On the pitch: 6-1.
Shots Club Brugge KV 23 · KV Mechelen 8; on target 11 and 2.
Club Brugge KV kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

B. Van Driessche→

4.49

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.9%: “Club Brugge KV to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.74 for Club Brugge KV, 0.90 for KV Mechelen.
The highest double chance value is 91.6% (1X — Club Brugge KV win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,105 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Club Brugge KV to win76.9%

Draw14.7%

KV Mechelen to win8.4%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

90'Club Brugge KVC. Tzolis (penalty)

90+5'KV MechelenG. Diouf · red card

8	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,524 of 6,225 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Club Brugge KV win or draw91.6%

12 — any result other than a draw85.3%

X2 — draw or KV Mechelen win23.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (14.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Club Brugge KV lead at half-time47.6%

Level at half-time38.4%

KV Mechelen lead at half-time14.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Club Brugge KV ahead or level86.0%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or KV Mechelen ahead52.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1105 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Club Brugge KV: at least 9Actual: 8
KV Mechelen: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Club Brugge KV: at least 6Actual: 3
KV Mechelen: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals71.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 473 of 642 predictions were correct (73.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Club Brugge KV score2.13

Attack: Club Brugge KV score above the league average (45% more).

Opponent's defence: KV Mechelen's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals KV Mechelen score0.84

Attack: KV Mechelen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Club Brugge KV's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.0%2–19.7%3–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1105 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 126 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.