Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Conference League Group - 34

Standard Liege–Antwerp

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 21 April 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

47'AntwerpC. Scott (assist: A. Valencia)
66'AntwerpC. Scott (assist: A. Valencia)
78'Standard LiegeC. Nielsen (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Standard Liege		Antwerp
15	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	13
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	4
2	Offsides	3
47%	Possession	53%
345	Passes	418
254	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Standard Liege 1.14 · Antwerp 1.12. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Standard Liege 15 · Antwerp 17; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

N. Verboomen→

4.28

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.3%: “Standard Liege to win”. Second comes “Antwerp to win” at 34.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Standard Liege, 1.12 for Antwerp.
The highest double chance value is 69.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,105 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Standard Liege to win35.3%

Draw30.7%

Antwerp to win34.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Standard Liege lead at half-time28.3%

Level at half-time45.5%

Antwerp lead at half-time26.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Standard Liege ahead or level73.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Antwerp ahead71.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1105 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Standard Liege: at least 9Actual: 13
Antwerp: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Standard Liege: at least 4Actual: 6
Antwerp: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Standard Liege score1.14

Attack: Standard Liege score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Antwerp's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Antwerp score1.12

Attack: Antwerp score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Standard Liege's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–011.0%0–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.