Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Championship Group - 33

Union St. Gilloise–Club Brugge KV

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Club Brugge KVB. Mechele (assist: C. Tzolis)
29'Union St. GilloiseM. Biondic (assist: A. Khalaili)
81'Union St. GilloiseB. Zeneli (assist: A. Khalaili)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union St. Gilloise		Club Brugge KV
15	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
347	Passes	405
261	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union St. Gilloise 1.52 · Club Brugge KV 1.07. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Union St. Gilloise 15 · Club Brugge KV 11; on target 6 and 5.

Referee

L. Visser→

4.50

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.6%: “Union St. Gilloise to win”. Second comes “Club Brugge KV to win” at 28.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Union St. Gilloise, 1.15 for Club Brugge KV.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,104 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union St. Gilloise to win43.6%

Draw28.0%

Club Brugge KV to win28.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Union St. Gilloise lead at half-time36.3%

Level at half-time43.8%

Club Brugge KV lead at half-time19.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Union St. Gilloise ahead or level80.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Club Brugge KV ahead63.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1104 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union St. Gilloise: at least 11Actual: 13
Club Brugge KV: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Union St. Gilloise: at least 5Actual: 3
Club Brugge KV: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score1.52

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Club Brugge KV's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Club Brugge KV score1.07

Attack: Club Brugge KV score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.07 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–09.9%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.