Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Conference League Group - 33

KVC Westerlo–Genk

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Het Kuipje, Westerlo

Goals and red cards

68'GenkZ. El Ouahdi (assist: J. Ito)
71'GenkA. Bibout (assist: Z. El Ouahdi)
77'KVC WesterloA. Patrao (assist: A. Sayyadmanesh)

Match statistics

Match statistics
KVC Westerlo		Genk
12	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	7
1	Offsides	10
52%	Possession	48%
441	Passes	402
374	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KVC Westerlo 1.36 · Genk 1.43. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots KVC Westerlo 12 · Genk 10; on target 3 and 5.

Referee

B. Verbeke→

2.73

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.5%: “Genk to win”. Second comes “KVC Westerlo to win” at 36.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for KVC Westerlo, 1.56 for Genk.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,102 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KVC Westerlo to win36.7%

Draw25.9%

Genk to win37.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

KVC Westerlo lead at half-time27.4%

Level at half-time40.0%

Genk lead at half-time32.6%

First-half double chance

1X — KVC Westerlo ahead or level67.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Genk ahead72.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1102 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KVC Westerlo: at least 10Actual: 11
Genk: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

KVC Westerlo: at least 5Actual: 3
Genk: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,726 of 2,749 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KVC Westerlo score1.36

Attack: KVC Westerlo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Genk's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genk score1.43

Attack: Genk score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: KVC Westerlo's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–29.2%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.