Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Championship Group - 32

KV Mechelen–Union St. Gilloise

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Union St. GilloiseR. Sykes (assist: R. Schoofs)

Match statistics

Match statistics
KV Mechelen		Union St. Gilloise
4	Shots	18
0	Shots on target	8
1	Shots inside the box	12
7	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	9
0	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
440	Passes	333
349	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KV Mechelen 0.85 · Union St. Gilloise 1.62. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots KV Mechelen 4 · Union St. Gilloise 18; on target 0 and 8.
KV Mechelen kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

N. Laforge→

4.73

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.8%: “Union St. Gilloise to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.84 for KV Mechelen, 1.74 for Union St. Gilloise.
The highest double chance value is 83.6% (X2 — draw or Union St. Gilloise win).
These values were computed from 1,100 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KV Mechelen to win16.4%

Draw24.8%

Union St. Gilloise to win58.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

KV Mechelen lead at half-time15.4%

Level at half-time44.1%

Union St. Gilloise lead at half-time40.5%

First-half double chance

1X — KV Mechelen ahead or level59.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Union St. Gilloise ahead84.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1100 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KV Mechelen: at least 8Actual: 7
Union St. Gilloise: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

KV Mechelen: at least 4Actual: 2
Union St. Gilloise: at least 5Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KV Mechelen score0.85

Attack: KV Mechelen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score1.62

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: KV Mechelen's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%0–112.4%0–211.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.