Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Relegation Group - 32

Cercle Brugge–RAAL La Louvière

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

2'Cercle BruggeS. Ngoura (assist: D. Vanzeir)
45'Cercle BruggeS. Ngoura (assist: E. Diop)
89'Cercle BruggeO. Adewumi (assist: Flávio Nazinho)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cercle Brugge		RAAL La Louvière
21	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	4
18	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
497	Passes	277
396	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cercle Brugge 1.46 · RAAL La Louvière 1.13. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Cercle Brugge 21 · RAAL La Louvière 10; on target 6 and 4.
Cercle Brugge kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Simon Bourdeaud'hui, Belgium→

3.25

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.7%: “Cercle Brugge to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for Cercle Brugge, 1.01 for RAAL La Louvière.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (1X — Cercle Brugge win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,099 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cercle Brugge to win51.7%

Draw26.4%

RAAL La Louvière to win21.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Cercle Brugge lead at half-time35.0%

Level at half-time41.3%

RAAL La Louvière lead at half-time23.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Cercle Brugge ahead or level76.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or RAAL La Louvière ahead65.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1099 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cercle Brugge: at least 10Actual: 6
RAAL La Louvière: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Cercle Brugge: at least 4Actual: 9
RAAL La Louvière: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cercle Brugge score1.46

Attack: Cercle Brugge score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RAAL La Louvière's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals RAAL La Louvière score1.13

Attack: RAAL La Louvière score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cercle Brugge's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–010.8%2–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.