Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Conference League Group - 31

KVC Westerlo–Charleroi

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Het Kuipje, Westerlo

Goals and red cards

34'KVC WesterloEmin Bayram (penalty)
60'CharleroiEtienne Camara · red card
79'KVC WesterloNacho Ferri (assist: N. Bohamdi-Kamoni)

Match statistics

Match statistics
KVC Westerlo		Charleroi
15	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	5
0	Offsides	6
53%	Possession	47%
491	Passes	436
429	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KVC Westerlo 1.41 · Charleroi 1.23. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots KVC Westerlo 15 · Charleroi 7; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

N. Verboomen→

4.28

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.3%: “KVC Westerlo to win”. Second comes “Charleroi to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for KVC Westerlo, 1.23 for Charleroi.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,097 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KVC Westerlo to win40.3%

Draw28.1%

Charleroi to win31.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

KVC Westerlo lead at half-time28.8%

Level at half-time41.1%

Charleroi lead at half-time30.2%

First-half double chance

1X — KVC Westerlo ahead or level69.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Charleroi ahead71.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1097 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KVC Westerlo: at least 9Actual: 10
Charleroi: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

KVC Westerlo: at least 5Actual: 5
Charleroi: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KVC Westerlo score1.41

Attack: KVC Westerlo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Charleroi's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Charleroi score1.23

Attack: Charleroi score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KVC Westerlo's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.5%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.