Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Championship Group - 31

Union St. Gilloise–St. Truiden

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

62'Union St. GilloiseGuilherme Henriques da Silva Carvalho (assist: A. Ait El Hadj)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union St. Gilloise		St. Truiden
16	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	0
7	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
495	Passes	457
420	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union St. Gilloise 1.68 · St. Truiden 0.90. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Union St. Gilloise 16 · St. Truiden 6; on target 4 and 0.

Referee

E. Lambrechts→

3.87

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.6%: “Union St. Gilloise to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.86 for Union St. Gilloise, 0.92 for St. Truiden.
The highest double chance value is 83.3% (1X — Union St. Gilloise win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,096 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union St. Gilloise to win59.6%

Draw23.7%

St. Truiden to win16.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	6

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Union St. Gilloise lead at half-time46.4%

Level at half-time40.5%

St. Truiden lead at half-time13.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Union St. Gilloise ahead or level86.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or St. Truiden ahead53.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1096 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union St. Gilloise: at least 10Actual: 9
St. Truiden: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

Union St. Gilloise: at least 5Actual: 7
St. Truiden: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score1.68

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: St. Truiden's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals St. Truiden score0.90

Attack: St. Truiden score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–010.9%2–110.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.