Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Conference League Group - 31

OH Leuven–Standard Liege

1–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

48'OH LeuvenH. Teklab (assist: S. Schrijvers)
65'Standard LiegeD. Eckert Ayensa (assist: A. Abid)
80'Standard LiegeE. Pletinckx (own goal)
90'Standard LiegeD. Eckert Ayensa (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
OH Leuven		Standard Liege
14	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	7
11	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
443	Passes	367
345	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OH Leuven 1.34 · Standard Liege 1.04. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots OH Leuven 14 · Standard Liege 12; on target 5 and 7.
OH Leuven kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

B. Verbeke→

2.93

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.6%: “OH Leuven to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for OH Leuven, 1.07 for Standard Liege.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (1X — OH Leuven win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,096 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OH Leuven to win44.6%

Draw28.4%

Standard Liege to win27.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

OH Leuven lead at half-time26.3%

Level at half-time45.3%

Standard Liege lead at half-time28.4%

First-half double chance

1X — OH Leuven ahead or level71.6%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Standard Liege ahead73.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1096 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OH Leuven: at least 12Actual: 7
Standard Liege: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

OH Leuven: at least 5Actual: 7
Standard Liege: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OH Leuven score1.34

Attack: OH Leuven score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Standard Liege's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Standard Liege score1.04

Attack: Standard Liege score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: OH Leuven's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–010.9%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.