Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Relegation Group - 31

Zulte Waregem–Cercle Brugge

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Elindus Arena, Waregem

Goals and red cards

28'Cercle BruggeE. Diop (assist: Flávio Nazinho)
59'Zulte WaregemLaurent Lemoine (assist: E. Lofolomo)
71'Cercle BruggeOumar Diakité (penalty)
77'Zulte WaregemM. Mbaye (assist: J. Erenbjerg)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Zulte Waregem		Cercle Brugge
6	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
8	Corners	3
2	Offsides	4
54%	Possession	46%
397	Passes	339
282	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zulte Waregem 1.45 · Cercle Brugge 1.37. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Zulte Waregem 6 · Cercle Brugge 10; on target 2 and 5.

Referee

L. Visser→

4.51

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.4%: “Cercle Brugge to win”. Second comes “Zulte Waregem to win” at 36.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Zulte Waregem, 1.41 for Cercle Brugge.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,096 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zulte Waregem to win36.3%

Draw27.2%

Cercle Brugge to win36.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,214 of 3,676 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Zulte Waregem win or draw63.6%

12 — any result other than a draw72.8%

X2 — draw or Cercle Brugge win63.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Zulte Waregem lead at half-time28.8%

Level at half-time39.7%

Cercle Brugge lead at half-time31.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Zulte Waregem ahead or level68.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Cercle Brugge ahead71.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1096 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zulte Waregem: at least 10Actual: 12
Cercle Brugge: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Zulte Waregem: at least 5Actual: 8
Cercle Brugge: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zulte Waregem score1.45

Attack: Zulte Waregem score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cercle Brugge's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cercle Brugge score1.37

Attack: Cercle Brugge score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zulte Waregem's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–29.1%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1096 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 64 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.