Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 30

RAAL La Louvière–Genk

5–5

HT 2–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Easi Arena, La Louviere

Goals and red cards

6'GenkDaan Heymans
15'GenkR. Mirisola
37'RAAL La LouvièreY. Okou (assist: N. Gillot)
43'RAAL La LouvièreJ. Afriyie (assist: N. Gillot)
45'GenkJ. Ito (assist: Daan Heymans)
50'GenkZ. El Ouahdi (assist: Daan Heymans)
68'

Match statistics

Match statistics
RAAL La Louvière		Genk
18	Shots	14
8	Shots on target	7
15	Shots inside the box	12
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	3
0	Offsides	4
45%	Possession	55%
349	Passes	445
262	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RAAL La Louvière 1.07 · Genk 1.27. On the pitch: 5-5.
Shots RAAL La Louvière 18 · Genk 14; on target 8 and 7.
Genk kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

N. Verboomen→

4.29

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Genk to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for RAAL La Louvière, 1.27 for Genk.
The highest double chance value is 70.1% (X2 — draw or Genk win).
These values were computed from 1,088 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RAAL La Louvière to win29.9%

Draw29.9%

Genk to win40.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Tobias Okiki Lawal (own goal)

86'GenkA. Bibout (assist: K. Karetsas)

90'RAAL La LouvièreN. Nsingi

90'RAAL La LouvièreWagane Faye (assist: N. Gillot)

10	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — RAAL La Louvière win or draw59.8%

12 — any result other than a draw70.1%

X2 — draw or Genk win70.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.9%).

First half

Actual: 2–3

RAAL La Louvière lead at half-time26.7%

Level at half-time44.8%

Genk lead at half-time28.5%

First-half double chance

1X — RAAL La Louvière ahead or level71.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Genk ahead73.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1088 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RAAL La Louvière: at least 10Actual: 10
Genk: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

RAAL La Louvière: at least 4Actual: 10
Genk: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (52.8%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RAAL La Louvière score1.07

Attack: RAAL La Louvière score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Genk's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genk score1.27

Attack: Genk score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RAAL La Louvière's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%0–111.4%0–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1088 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 29 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.