Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 30

OH Leuven–Antwerp

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'AntwerpZ. Van Den Bosch · red card
90'OH LeuvenS. Kaba (assist: S. Schrijvers)

Match statistics

Match statistics
OH Leuven		Antwerp
17	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	0
16	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
362	Passes	332
289	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OH Leuven 1.25 · Antwerp 1.17. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots OH Leuven 17 · Antwerp 5; on target 4 and 0.

Referee

N. Laforge→

4.70

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.4%: “OH Leuven to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for OH Leuven, 1.11 for Antwerp.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (1X — OH Leuven win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,088 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OH Leuven to win47.4%

Draw27.0%

Antwerp to win25.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

OH Leuven lead at half-time25.7%

Level at half-time45.3%

Antwerp lead at half-time29.1%

First-half double chance

1X — OH Leuven ahead or level70.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Antwerp ahead74.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1088 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OH Leuven: at least 12Actual: 11
Antwerp: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

OH Leuven: at least 4Actual: 5
Antwerp: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OH Leuven score1.25

Attack: OH Leuven score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Antwerp's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Antwerp score1.17

Attack: Antwerp score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: OH Leuven's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–110.3%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.