Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 29

KV Mechelen–Anderlecht

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

89'AnderlechtA. Bertaccini · red card
90'KV MechelenMyron Van Brederode

Match statistics

Match statistics
KV Mechelen		Anderlecht
13	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
281	Passes	427
203	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KV Mechelen 1.34 · Anderlecht 1.38. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots KV Mechelen 13 · Anderlecht 17; on target 5 and 4.
Anderlecht kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

N. Laforge→

4.64

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.1%: “Anderlecht to win”. Second comes “KV Mechelen to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for KV Mechelen, 1.49 for Anderlecht.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,086 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KV Mechelen to win31.6%

Draw27.3%

Anderlecht to win41.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	8

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — KV Mechelen win or draw58.9%

12 — any result other than a draw72.7%

X2 — draw or Anderlecht win68.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

KV Mechelen lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time43.6%

Anderlecht lead at half-time24.9%

First-half double chance

1X — KV Mechelen ahead or level75.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Anderlecht ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1086 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KV Mechelen: at least 10Actual: 9
Anderlecht: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

KV Mechelen: at least 4Actual: 5
Anderlecht: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KV Mechelen score1.34

Attack: KV Mechelen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Anderlecht score1.38

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KV Mechelen's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–29.7%0–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1086 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 121 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.