Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 29

Antwerp–Standard Liege

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bosuilstadion, Deurne

Goals and red cards

71'AntwerpDaam Foulon · red card
79'AntwerpA. Valencia
90'Standard LiegeT. Mohr (assist: T. Teuma)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Antwerp		Standard Liege
9	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
342	Passes	500
251	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Antwerp 1.34 · Standard Liege 0.94. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Antwerp 9 · Standard Liege 12; on target 2 and 6.
Standard Liege kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

N. Verboomen→

4.29

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.4%: “Antwerp to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Antwerp, 0.94 for Standard Liege.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (1X — Antwerp win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,085 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Antwerp to win45.4%

Draw29.7%

Standard Liege to win24.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Antwerp lead at half-time30.9%

Level at half-time44.0%

Standard Liege lead at half-time25.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Antwerp ahead or level74.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Standard Liege ahead69.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1085 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Antwerp: at least 11Actual: 11
Standard Liege: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Antwerp: at least 4Actual: 5
Standard Liege: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Antwerp score1.34

Attack: Antwerp score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Standard Liege's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Standard Liege score0.94

Attack: Standard Liege score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Antwerp's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–013.0%0–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.