Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 29

Union St. Gilloise–Dender

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'Union St. GilloiseM. Biondic
80'Union St. GilloiseK. Rodríguez

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union St. Gilloise		Dender
9	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
447	Passes	462
357	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union St. Gilloise 1.99 · Dender 0.64. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Union St. Gilloise 9 · Dender 5; on target 3 and 1.

Referee

B. Verbeke→

3.08

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.3%: “Union St. Gilloise to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.22 for Union St. Gilloise, 0.64 for Dender.
The highest double chance value is 92.0% (1X — Union St. Gilloise win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,082 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union St. Gilloise to win74.3%

Draw17.7%

Dender to win8.0%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Union St. Gilloise lead at half-time51.4%

Level at half-time39.1%

Dender lead at half-time9.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Union St. Gilloise ahead or level90.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or Dender ahead48.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1082 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union St. Gilloise: at least 11Actual: 10
Dender: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Union St. Gilloise: at least 6Actual: 5
Dender: at least 2Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score1.99

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Dender's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dender score0.64

Attack: Dender score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.7%1–012.1%3–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.