Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 29

Gent–Zulte Waregem

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 13 March 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ghelamco Arena, Ghent

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'GentM. Dean
68'GentW. Kanga (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gent		Zulte Waregem
11	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
434	Passes	408
356	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gent 1.61 · Zulte Waregem 1.29. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Gent 11 · Zulte Waregem 5; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

Simon Bourdeaud'hui, Belgium→

3.28

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.0%: “Gent to win”. Second comes “Zulte Waregem to win” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Gent, 1.39 for Zulte Waregem.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,080 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gent to win42.0%

Draw26.1%

Zulte Waregem to win31.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Gent lead at half-time35.1%

Level at half-time39.9%

Zulte Waregem lead at half-time25.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Gent ahead or level75.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Zulte Waregem ahead64.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1080 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gent: at least 10Actual: 13
Zulte Waregem: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Gent: at least 4Actual: 2
Zulte Waregem: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gent score1.61

Attack: Gent score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zulte Waregem's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zulte Waregem score1.29

Attack: Zulte Waregem score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gent concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–19.8%1–28.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.