Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 28

Dender–Charleroi

2–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Dender Football Complex, Denderleeuw

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'CharleroiA. Scheidler (assist: Parfait Guiagon)
21'DenderRoman Kvet (assist: Junior Marsoni Sambu Mansoni)
39'DenderD. Hrnčár (assist: N. Mbamba)
78'CharleroiA. Colassin (assist: J. Romsaas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dender		Charleroi
15	Shots	22
5	Shots on target	7
11	Shots inside the box	16
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	13
1	Offsides	0
43%	Possession	57%
318	Passes	403
229	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dender 1.13 · Charleroi 1.36. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Dender 15 · Charleroi 22; on target 5 and 7.
Charleroi kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

J. Boterberg→

3.57

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.9%: “Charleroi to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.06 for Dender, 1.54 for Charleroi.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (X2 — draw or Charleroi win).
These values were computed from 1,074 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dender to win24.7%

Draw27.4%

Charleroi to win47.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Dender lead at half-time20.6%

Level at half-time42.2%

Charleroi lead at half-time37.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Dender ahead or level62.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Charleroi ahead79.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1074 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dender: at least 9Actual: 9
Charleroi: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Dender: at least 4Actual: 5
Charleroi: at least 4Actual: 13

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dender score1.13

Attack: Dender score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Charleroi's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Charleroi score1.36

Attack: Charleroi score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dender's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%0–110.6%1–210.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.