Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 27

Cercle Brugge–Dender

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cercle Brugge		Dender
21	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	6
16	Shots inside the box	7
6	Goalkeeper saves	8
9	Corners	4
4	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
320	Passes	363
220	Accurate passes	261
10	Fouls	10
1	Yellow cards

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cercle Brugge 1.68 · Dender 1.07. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Cercle Brugge 21 · Dender 11; on target 8 and 6.

Referee

N. Verboomen→

4.29

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.4%: “Cercle Brugge to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Cercle Brugge, 1.07 for Dender.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (1X — Cercle Brugge win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,071 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cercle Brugge to win51.4%

Draw26.0%

Dender to win22.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Cercle Brugge lead at half-time40.4%

Level at half-time40.0%

Dender lead at half-time19.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Cercle Brugge ahead or level80.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Dender ahead59.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1071 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cercle Brugge: at least 9Actual: 10
Dender: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Cercle Brugge: at least 5Actual: 9
Dender: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cercle Brugge score1.68

Attack: Cercle Brugge score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dender's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dender score1.07

Attack: Dender score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cercle Brugge's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–110.7%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.