Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 27

Standard Liege–RAAL La Louvière

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 27 February 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Standard LiegeM. Ilaimaharitra (penalty)
24'RAAL La LouvièreP. Fall (assist: J. Liongola)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Standard Liege		RAAL La Louvière
9	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	3
5	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
364	Passes	333
269	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Standard Liege 1.07 · RAAL La Louvière 1.03. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Standard Liege 9 · RAAL La Louvière 12; on target 2 and 3.

Referee

Simon Bourdeaud'hui, Belgium→

3.24

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.7%: “Standard Liege to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Standard Liege, 1.05 for RAAL La Louvière.
The highest double chance value is 69.9% (1X — Standard Liege win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,064 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Standard Liege to win39.7%

Draw30.3%

RAAL La Louvière to win30.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Standard Liege lead at half-time31.1%

Level at half-time45.7%

RAAL La Louvière lead at half-time23.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Standard Liege ahead or level76.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.3%

X2 — level or RAAL La Louvière ahead68.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1064 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Standard Liege: at least 10Actual: 12
RAAL La Louvière: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Standard Liege: at least 4Actual: 4
RAAL La Louvière: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Standard Liege score1.07

Attack: Standard Liege score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: RAAL La Louvière's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals RAAL La Louvière score1.03

Attack: RAAL La Louvière score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Standard Liege's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–011.7%0–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.