Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 26

RAAL La Louvière–KV Mechelen

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'RAAL La LouvièreM. Ashimeru · red card
37'KV MechelenKerim Mrabti (assist: T. Koudou)
49'KV MechelenK. Vanrafelghem (assist: B. Boersma)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RAAL La Louvière		KV Mechelen
7	Shots	6
2	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	4
26%	Possession	74%
215	Passes	640
152	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RAAL La Louvière 1.21 · KV Mechelen 1.15. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots RAAL La Louvière 7 · KV Mechelen 6; on target 2 and 2.
KV Mechelen kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

M. Allaerts→

3.87

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.2%: “RAAL La Louvière to win”. Second comes “KV Mechelen to win” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for RAAL La Louvière, 1.21 for KV Mechelen.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,061 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RAAL La Louvière to win41.2%

Draw28.0%

KV Mechelen to win30.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	0

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

RAAL La Louvière lead at half-time22.4%

Level at half-time46.7%

KV Mechelen lead at half-time30.8%

First-half double chance

1X — RAAL La Louvière ahead or level69.2%

12 — not level at half-time53.3%

X2 — level or KV Mechelen ahead77.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1061 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RAAL La Louvière: at least 10Actual: 13
KV Mechelen: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

RAAL La Louvière: at least 5Actual: 4
KV Mechelen: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RAAL La Louvière score1.21

Attack: RAAL La Louvière score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: KV Mechelen's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals KV Mechelen score1.15

Attack: KV Mechelen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RAAL La Louvière's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.6%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.