Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 26

Union St. Gilloise–Antwerp

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

44'Union St. GilloiseZ. Van Den Bosch (own goal)
51'AntwerpA. Valencia (assist: V. Janssen)
90'Union St. GilloiseR. Sykes (assist: A. Khalaili)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union St. Gilloise		Antwerp
21	Shots	4
6	Shots on target	2
16	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
10	Corners	1
2	Offsides	2
62%	Possession	38%
506	Passes	322
415	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union St. Gilloise 1.69 · Antwerp 0.75. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Union St. Gilloise 21 · Antwerp 4; on target 6 and 2.
Union St. Gilloise kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

B. Van Driessche→

4.52

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.2%: “Union St. Gilloise to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.08 for Union St. Gilloise, 0.70 for Antwerp.
The highest double chance value is 90.0% (1X — Union St. Gilloise win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,059 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union St. Gilloise to win70.2%

Draw19.8%

Antwerp to win10.0%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,222 predictions were correct (74.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Union St. Gilloise lead at half-time44.0%

Level at half-time41.9%

Antwerp lead at half-time14.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Union St. Gilloise ahead or level85.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Antwerp ahead56.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1059 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union St. Gilloise: at least 11Actual: 13
Antwerp: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Union St. Gilloise: at least 5Actual: 10
Antwerp: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score1.69

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Antwerp's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Antwerp score0.75

Attack: Antwerp score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.9%1–012.2%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.