Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 25

St. Truiden–Zulte Waregem

3–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 February 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

18'Zulte WaregemJoseph Okopu
25'Zulte WaregemJoseph Okopu (assist: E. Soglo)
44'Zulte WaregemJ. Kiilerich · red card
45'St. TruidenK. Goto (penalty)
45'St. TruidenS. Jukleroed
85'St. TruidenLoïc Mbe Soh (assist: R. Yamamoto)

Match statistics

Match statistics
St. Truiden		Zulte Waregem
17	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
408	Passes	292
277	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: St. Truiden 1.75 · Zulte Waregem 1.04. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots St. Truiden 17 · Zulte Waregem 12; on target 7 and 3.
St. Truiden kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

N. Verboomen→

4.27

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.0%: “St. Truiden to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for St. Truiden, 1.04 for Zulte Waregem.
The highest double chance value is 79.2% (1X — St. Truiden win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,055 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

St. Truiden to win54.0%

Draw25.2%

Zulte Waregem to win20.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — St. Truiden win or draw79.2%

12 — any result other than a draw74.8%

X2 — draw or Zulte Waregem win46.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.2%).

First half

Actual: 2–2

St. Truiden lead at half-time34.8%

Level at half-time41.7%

Zulte Waregem lead at half-time23.4%

First-half double chance

1X — St. Truiden ahead or level76.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Zulte Waregem ahead65.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1055 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

St. Truiden: at least 10Actual: 11
Zulte Waregem: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

St. Truiden: at least 5Actual: 7
Zulte Waregem: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals St. Truiden score1.75

Attack: St. Truiden score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Zulte Waregem's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zulte Waregem score1.04

Attack: Zulte Waregem score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: St. Truiden's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.8%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1055 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 58 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.