Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 24

Club Brugge KV–Standard Liege

3–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 February 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'Club Brugge KVN. Tresoldi (assist: K. Sabbe)
45'Club Brugge KVDavid Robert Bates (own goal)
45'Club Brugge KVJ. Ordonez (assist: Carlos Forbs)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Club Brugge KV		Standard Liege
22	Shots	5
11	Shots on target	0
16	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	9
7	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
71%	Possession	29%
789	Passes	317
724	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Club Brugge KV 2.00 · Standard Liege 0.72. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Club Brugge KV 22 · Standard Liege 5; on target 11 and 0.
Club Brugge KV kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

B. Van Driessche→

4.55

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.5%: “Club Brugge KV to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.39 for Club Brugge KV, 0.71 for Standard Liege.
The highest double chance value is 92.1% (1X — Club Brugge KV win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,046 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Club Brugge KV to win75.5%

Draw16.5%

Standard Liege to win7.9%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Club Brugge KV lead at half-time44.4%

Level at half-time40.2%

Standard Liege lead at half-time15.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Club Brugge KV ahead or level84.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Standard Liege ahead55.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1046 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Club Brugge KV: at least 9Actual: 8
Standard Liege: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Club Brugge KV: at least 6
Standard Liege: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Club Brugge KV score2.00

Attack: Club Brugge KV score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Standard Liege's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Standard Liege score0.72

Attack: Standard Liege score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Club Brugge KV's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.3%3–010.6%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.