Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 24

Gent–OH Leuven

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ghelamco Arena, Ghent

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'OH LeuvenR. Nyakossi (assist: Y. Maziz)
25'OH LeuvenS. Schrijvers (penalty)
54'GentH. Goore (assist: M. Skóraś)
70'OH LeuvenY. Maziz (assist: T. Verlinden)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gent		OH Leuven
23	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	4
17	Shots inside the box	11
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
64%	Possession	36%
459	Passes	272
393	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gent 1.53 · OH Leuven 1.09. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Gent 23 · OH Leuven 13; on target 3 and 4.
Gent kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

K. van Damme→

4.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.5%: “Gent to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Gent, 1.11 for OH Leuven.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (1X — Gent win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,043 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gent to win48.5%

Draw26.6%

OH Leuven to win24.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Gent lead at half-time38.6%

Level at half-time42.0%

OH Leuven lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Gent ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or OH Leuven ahead61.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1043 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gent: at least 10Actual: 15
OH Leuven: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Gent: at least 5Actual: 6
OH Leuven: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gent score1.53

Attack: Gent score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: OH Leuven's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals OH Leuven score1.09

Attack: OH Leuven score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gent's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–110.4%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.