Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 24

Zulte Waregem–Dender

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Elindus Arena, Waregem

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

81'Zulte WaregemS. Gavriel (assist: A. Ementa)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Zulte Waregem		Dender
12	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	1
2	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
419	Passes	410
344	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zulte Waregem 1.54 · Dender 1.09. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Zulte Waregem 12 · Dender 7; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

A. Letellier→

1.75

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.5%: “Zulte Waregem to win”. Second comes “Dender to win” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Zulte Waregem, 1.16 for Dender.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,041 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zulte Waregem to win42.5%

Draw28.2%

Dender to win29.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Zulte Waregem lead at half-time40.1%

Level at half-time41.8%

Dender lead at half-time18.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Zulte Waregem ahead or level81.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Dender ahead59.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1041 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zulte Waregem: at least 9Actual: 11
Dender: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Zulte Waregem: at least 4Actual: 6
Dender: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zulte Waregem score1.54

Attack: Zulte Waregem score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dender's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dender score1.09

Attack: Dender score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zulte Waregem's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–09.9%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.