Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 22

OH Leuven–Union St. Gilloise

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
OH Leuven		Union St. Gilloise
17	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	9
4	Offsides	3
44%	Possession	56%
335	Passes	429
253	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OH Leuven 0.78 · Union St. Gilloise 1.59. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots OH Leuven 17 · Union St. Gilloise 13; on target 5 and 2.
Union St. Gilloise kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

M. Allaerts→

3.82

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.2%: “Union St. Gilloise to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.00 for OH Leuven, 1.46 for Union St. Gilloise.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (X2 — draw or Union St. Gilloise win).
These values were computed from 1,027 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OH Leuven to win24.5%

Draw28.3%

Union St. Gilloise to win47.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

OH Leuven lead at half-time9.9%

Level at half-time40.6%

Union St. Gilloise lead at half-time49.5%

First-half double chance

1X — OH Leuven ahead or level50.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Union St. Gilloise ahead90.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1027 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OH Leuven: at least 11Actual: 16
Union St. Gilloise: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

OH Leuven: at least 3Actual: 4
Union St. Gilloise: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OH Leuven score0.78

Attack: OH Leuven score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score1.59

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: OH Leuven's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%0–111.7%1–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.