Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 21

St. Truiden–OH Leuven

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 January 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'St. TruidenI. Sebaoui

Match statistics

Match statistics
St. Truiden		OH Leuven
21	Shots	20
7	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
2	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
435	Passes	449
341	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: St. Truiden 1.71 · OH Leuven 0.89. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots St. Truiden 21 · OH Leuven 20; on target 7 and 3.

Referee

M. Ledda→

3.20

yellows per match

0.60

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.4%: “St. Truiden to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for St. Truiden, 1.00 for OH Leuven.
The highest double chance value is 79.8% (1X — St. Truiden win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,023 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

St. Truiden to win54.4%

Draw25.3%

OH Leuven to win20.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

St. Truiden lead at half-time43.5%

Level at half-time40.9%

OH Leuven lead at half-time15.5%

First-half double chance

1X — St. Truiden ahead or level84.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or OH Leuven ahead56.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1023 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

St. Truiden: at least 10Actual: 9
OH Leuven: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

St. Truiden: at least 5Actual: 2
OH Leuven: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals St. Truiden score1.71

Attack: St. Truiden score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: OH Leuven's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals OH Leuven score0.89

Attack: OH Leuven score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: St. Truiden's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%2–110.8%1–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.