Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 21

KVC Westerlo–Cercle Brugge

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Het Kuipje, Westerlo

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Cercle BruggeEmin Bayram (own goal)
39'Cercle BruggeO. Adewumi (assist: G. Magnée)

Match statistics

Match statistics
KVC Westerlo		Cercle Brugge
17	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
7	Corners	4
0	Offsides	5
69%	Possession	31%
560	Passes	253
451	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KVC Westerlo 1.69 · Cercle Brugge 1.25. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots KVC Westerlo 17 · Cercle Brugge 8; on target 6 and 2.
KVC Westerlo kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

B. Put→

3.70

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.3%: “KVC Westerlo to win”. Second comes “Cercle Brugge to win” at 33.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for KVC Westerlo, 1.48 for Cercle Brugge.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,018 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KVC Westerlo to win41.3%

Draw25.6%

Cercle Brugge to win33.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

KVC Westerlo lead at half-time38.1%

Level at half-time39.1%

Cercle Brugge lead at half-time22.8%

First-half double chance

1X — KVC Westerlo ahead or level77.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or Cercle Brugge ahead61.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1018 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KVC Westerlo: at least 11Actual: 11
Cercle Brugge: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

KVC Westerlo: at least 5Actual: 7
Cercle Brugge: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KVC Westerlo score1.69

Attack: KVC Westerlo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cercle Brugge's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cercle Brugge score1.25

Attack: Cercle Brugge score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KVC Westerlo's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–19.7%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.