Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 20

KV Mechelen–Dender

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 December 2025 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'KV MechelenT. Koudou
61'DenderD. Toshevski (assist: Bryan Goncalves)
88'DenderL. De Fougerolles · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
KV Mechelen		Dender
14	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	9
10	Shots inside the box	14
8	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	6
0	Offsides	4
54%	Possession	46%
416	Passes	344
316	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KV Mechelen 1.70 · Dender 0.97. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots KV Mechelen 14 · Dender 17; on target 6 and 9.

Referee

M. Ledda→

2.25

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.8%: “KV Mechelen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for KV Mechelen, 1.09 for Dender.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (1X — KV Mechelen win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,014 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KV Mechelen to win46.8%

Draw27.5%

Dender to win25.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

KV Mechelen lead at half-time41.3%

Level at half-time43.3%

Dender lead at half-time15.4%

First-half double chance

1X — KV Mechelen ahead or level84.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Dender ahead58.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1014 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KV Mechelen: at least 9Actual: 13
Dender: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

KV Mechelen: at least 5Actual: 5
Dender: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KV Mechelen score1.70

Attack: KV Mechelen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dender concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dender score0.97

Attack: Dender score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: KV Mechelen's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–010.3%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.