Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 19

KVC Westerlo–RAAL La Louvière

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Het Kuipje, Westerlo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'KVC WesterloM. Maisonneuve (own goal)
88'RAAL La LouvièreP. Fall (assist: N. Gillot)
90'KVC WesterloAdedire Mebude (assist: Doğucan Haspolat)

Match statistics

Match statistics
KVC Westerlo		RAAL La Louvière
14	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	5
1	Offsides	6
59%	Possession	41%
537	Passes	351
442	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KVC Westerlo 1.66 · RAAL La Louvière 0.91. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots KVC Westerlo 14 · RAAL La Louvière 14; on target 4 and 3.
KVC Westerlo kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

A. Letellier→

1.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.8%: “KVC Westerlo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.80 for KVC Westerlo, 0.97 for RAAL La Louvière.
The highest double chance value is 81.3% (1X — KVC Westerlo win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,002 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KVC Westerlo to win56.8%

Draw24.6%

RAAL La Louvière to win18.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	5

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

KVC Westerlo lead at half-time29.6%

Level at half-time44.0%

RAAL La Louvière lead at half-time26.4%

First-half double chance

1X — KVC Westerlo ahead or level73.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or RAAL La Louvière ahead70.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1002 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KVC Westerlo: at least 10Actual: 10
RAAL La Louvière: at least 11Actual: 5

Corners

KVC Westerlo: at least 4Actual: 4
RAAL La Louvière: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KVC Westerlo score1.66

Attack: KVC Westerlo score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: RAAL La Louvière's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals RAAL La Louvière score0.91

Attack: RAAL La Louvière score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: KVC Westerlo's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–110.9%1–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.