Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 18

Cercle Brugge–KV Mechelen

2–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 19%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'KV MechelenF. Hammar (assist: M. Servais)
39'KV MechelenLion Lauberbach (assist: M. Servais)
47'Cercle BruggeFlávio Nazinho (assist: L. Agyekum)
49'KV MechelenG. Diouf
90'Cercle BruggeG. Magnée (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cercle Brugge		KV Mechelen
17	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	6
13	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	9
2	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
383	Passes	373
296	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cercle Brugge 1.56 · KV Mechelen 1.12. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Cercle Brugge 17 · KV Mechelen 12; on target 7 and 6.

Referee

Kevin van Damme, Belgium→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.4%: “Cercle Brugge to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for Cercle Brugge, 1.09 for KV Mechelen.
The highest double chance value is 80.7% (1X — Cercle Brugge win or draw).
These values were computed from 993 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cercle Brugge to win57.4%

Draw23.4%

KV Mechelen to win19.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,774 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Cercle Brugge lead at half-time21.2%

Level at half-time42.9%

KV Mechelen lead at half-time35.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Cercle Brugge ahead or level64.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or KV Mechelen ahead78.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 993 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cercle Brugge: at least 9Actual: 12
KV Mechelen: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Cercle Brugge: at least 6Actual: 6
KV Mechelen: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cercle Brugge score1.56

Attack: Cercle Brugge score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KV Mechelen's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals KV Mechelen score1.12

Attack: KV Mechelen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cercle Brugge's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–111.0%2–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.