Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 17

OH Leuven–Zulte Waregem

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'OH LeuvenT. Verlinden (assist: Ł. Łakomy)
35'Zulte WaregemB. Nyssen (assist: T. Nnadi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
OH Leuven		Zulte Waregem
16	Shots	4
5	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
385	Passes	451
310	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OH Leuven 1.40 · Zulte Waregem 1.09. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots OH Leuven 16 · Zulte Waregem 4; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

Bert Put, Belgium→

4.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.4%: “OH Leuven to win”. Second comes “Zulte Waregem to win” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for OH Leuven, 1.18 for Zulte Waregem.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 991 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OH Leuven to win45.4%

Draw27.1%

Zulte Waregem to win27.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

OH Leuven lead at half-time21.2%

Level at half-time43.5%

Zulte Waregem lead at half-time35.3%

First-half double chance

1X — OH Leuven ahead or level64.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Zulte Waregem ahead78.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 991 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OH Leuven: at least 12Actual: 18
Zulte Waregem: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

OH Leuven: at least 5Actual: 4
Zulte Waregem: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OH Leuven score1.40

Attack: OH Leuven score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Zulte Waregem concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zulte Waregem score1.09

Attack: Zulte Waregem score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: OH Leuven's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–110.2%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.