Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 17

KVC Westerlo–Anderlecht

4–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Het Kuipje, Westerlo

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'KVC WesterloA. Piedfort
34'KVC WesterloA. Sayyadmanesh (assist: Nacho Ferri)
44'KVC WesterloA. Sayyadmanesh (penalty)
57'KVC WesterloBryan Reynolds (assist: I. Sakamoto)

Match statistics

Match statistics
KVC Westerlo		Anderlecht
17	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	9
1	Offsides	2
37%	Possession	63%
300	Passes	518
217	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KVC Westerlo 1.34 · Anderlecht 1.32. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots KVC Westerlo 17 · Anderlecht 13; on target 8 and 3.
Anderlecht kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Lawrence Visser, Belgium→

5.00

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.8%: “Anderlecht to win”. Second comes “KVC Westerlo to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for KVC Westerlo, 1.62 for Anderlecht.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 989 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KVC Westerlo to win32.2%

Draw26.0%

Anderlecht to win41.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

KVC Westerlo lead at half-time20.2%

Level at half-time43.1%

Anderlecht lead at half-time36.7%

First-half double chance

1X — KVC Westerlo ahead or level63.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Anderlecht ahead79.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 989 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KVC Westerlo: at least 10Actual: 11
Anderlecht: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

KVC Westerlo: at least 4Actual: 5
Anderlecht: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KVC Westerlo score1.34

Attack: KVC Westerlo score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Anderlecht score1.32

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KVC Westerlo's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–29.8%2–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.