Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 17

KV Mechelen–Charleroi

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'KV MechelenT. Koudou (assist: Kerim Mrabti)

Match statistics

Match statistics
KV Mechelen		Charleroi
11	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	0
7	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
451	Passes	375
369	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KV Mechelen 1.30 · Charleroi 1.13. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots KV Mechelen 11 · Charleroi 7; on target 4 and 0.

Referee

Nicolas Laforge, Belgium→

4.43

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.5%: “Charleroi to win”. Second comes “KV Mechelen to win” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for KV Mechelen, 1.43 for Charleroi.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 988 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KV Mechelen to win30.5%

Draw28.1%

Charleroi to win41.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

KV Mechelen lead at half-time34.6%

Level at half-time44.8%

Charleroi lead at half-time20.6%

First-half double chance

1X — KV Mechelen ahead or level79.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Charleroi ahead65.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 988 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KV Mechelen: at least 9Actual: 11
Charleroi: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

KV Mechelen: at least 4Actual: 7
Charleroi: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KV Mechelen score1.30

Attack: KV Mechelen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Charleroi's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Charleroi score1.13

Attack: Charleroi score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KV Mechelen's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–29.7%0–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.