Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 17

Cercle Brugge–Standard Liege

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'Standard LiegeT. Nkada (assist: C. Nielsen)
39'Standard LiegeE. Utkus (own goal)
82'Cercle BruggeO. Adewumi (assist: A. Minda)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cercle Brugge		Standard Liege
15	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
66%	Possession	34%
479	Passes	263
374	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cercle Brugge 1.48 · Standard Liege 0.95. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Cercle Brugge 15 · Standard Liege 11; on target 6 and 2.
Cercle Brugge kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Bert Verbeke, Netherlands→

2.86

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.7%: “Cercle Brugge to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Cercle Brugge, 1.09 for Standard Liege.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (1X — Cercle Brugge win or draw).
These values were computed from 985 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cercle Brugge to win48.7%

Draw26.8%

Standard Liege to win24.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Cercle Brugge lead at half-time32.3%

Level at half-time44.1%

Standard Liege lead at half-time23.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Cercle Brugge ahead or level76.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Standard Liege ahead67.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 985 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cercle Brugge: at least 10Actual: 7
Standard Liege: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Cercle Brugge: at least 5Actual: 9
Standard Liege: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cercle Brugge score1.48

Attack: Cercle Brugge score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Standard Liege's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Standard Liege score0.95

Attack: Standard Liege score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cercle Brugge's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–110.4%1–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.