Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 17

RAAL La Louvière–Dender

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 5 December 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Easi Arena, La Louviere

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'DenderB. Nsimba (penalty)
32'RAAL La LouvièreP. Fall (assist: M. Maisonneuve)
52'DenderRoman Kvet (assist: B. Nsimba)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RAAL La Louvière		Dender
15	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
387	Passes	406
297	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RAAL La Louvière 1.27 · Dender 0.90. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots RAAL La Louvière 15 · Dender 14; on target 4 and 6.

Referee

Nathan Verboomen, Belgium→

4.67

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.6%: “RAAL La Louvière to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for RAAL La Louvière, 1.04 for Dender.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (1X — RAAL La Louvière win or draw).
These values were computed from 984 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RAAL La Louvière to win43.6%

Draw29.1%

Dender to win27.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

RAAL La Louvière lead at half-time33.1%

Level at half-time48.3%

Dender lead at half-time18.6%

First-half double chance

1X — RAAL La Louvière ahead or level81.4%

12 — not level at half-time51.7%

X2 — level or Dender ahead66.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 984 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RAAL La Louvière: at least 10Actual: 9
Dender: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

RAAL La Louvière: at least 4Actual: 5
Dender: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RAAL La Louvière score1.27

Attack: RAAL La Louvière score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dender concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dender score0.90

Attack: Dender score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: RAAL La Louvière's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–011.5%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.