Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 16

Dender–KVC Westerlo

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Dender Football Complex, Denderleeuw

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'DenderD. Toshevski (assist: F. Ferraro)
50'KVC WesterloA. Sayyadmanesh (penalty)
56'DenderB. Nsimba
64'KVC WesterloNacho Ferri (assist: A. Piedfort)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dender		KVC Westerlo
8	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
45%	Possession	55%
310	Passes	386
223	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dender 1.32 · KVC Westerlo 1.35. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Dender 8 · KVC Westerlo 19; on target 4 and 5.
KVC Westerlo kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Jan Boterberg, Belgium→

3.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.6%: “KVC Westerlo to win”. Second comes “Dender to win” at 33.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Dender, 1.61 for KVC Westerlo.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 977 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dender to win33.5%

Draw25.9%

KVC Westerlo to win40.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Dender lead at half-time28.9%

Level at half-time44.5%

KVC Westerlo lead at half-time26.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Dender ahead or level73.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or KVC Westerlo ahead71.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 977 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dender: at least 9Actual: 16
KVC Westerlo: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Dender: at least 4Actual: 2
KVC Westerlo: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dender score1.32

Attack: Dender score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: KVC Westerlo's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals KVC Westerlo score1.35

Attack: KVC Westerlo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dender's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%1–29.6%2–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.