Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 15

OH Leuven–St. Truiden

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.8% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'St. TruidenR. Ito (penalty)
41'St. TruidenI. Sebaoui (assist: R. Yamamoto)
45'OH LeuvenT. Verlinden (assist: Ł. Łakomy)

Match statistics

Match statistics
OH Leuven		St. Truiden
19	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
10	Corners	1
0	Offsides	4
51%	Possession	49%
391	Passes	393
304	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OH Leuven 1.22 · St. Truiden 1.24. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots OH Leuven 19 · St. Truiden 8; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

Bert Verbeke, Netherlands→

2.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.2%: “OH Leuven to win”. Second comes “St. Truiden to win” at 35.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for OH Leuven, 1.30 for St. Truiden.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 975 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OH Leuven to win36.2%

Draw28.4%

St. Truiden to win35.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

OH Leuven lead at half-time26.7%

Level at half-time44.8%

St. Truiden lead at half-time28.5%

First-half double chance

1X — OH Leuven ahead or level71.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or St. Truiden ahead73.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 975 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OH Leuven: at least 12Actual: 15
St. Truiden: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

OH Leuven: at least 4Actual: 10
St. Truiden: at least 5Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OH Leuven score1.22

Attack: OH Leuven score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: St. Truiden's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals St. Truiden score1.24

Attack: St. Truiden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: OH Leuven's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%2–19.0%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.