Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 15

RAAL La Louvière–Anderlecht

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Easi Arena, La Louviere

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'AnderlechtI. Kanate (assist: Y. Verschaeren)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RAAL La Louvière		Anderlecht
10	Shots	20
4	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	7
0	Offsides	0
37%	Possession	63%
307	Passes	535
232	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RAAL La Louvière 1.02 · Anderlecht 1.19. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots RAAL La Louvière 10 · Anderlecht 20; on target 4 and 7.
Anderlecht kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Jan Boterberg, Belgium→

3.20

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.0%: “Anderlecht to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.00 for RAAL La Louvière, 1.52 for Anderlecht.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (X2 — draw or Anderlecht win).
These values were computed from 974 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RAAL La Louvière to win23.4%

Draw27.6%

Anderlecht to win49.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

RAAL La Louvière lead at half-time26.4%

Level at half-time47.0%

Anderlecht lead at half-time26.5%

First-half double chance

1X — RAAL La Louvière ahead or level73.5%

12 — not level at half-time53.0%

X2 — level or Anderlecht ahead73.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 974 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RAAL La Louvière: at least 10Actual: 14
Anderlecht: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

RAAL La Louvière: at least 4Actual: 5
Anderlecht: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RAAL La Louvière score1.02

Attack: RAAL La Louvière score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Anderlecht score1.19

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RAAL La Louvière's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%0–111.5%1–210.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.