Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 15

Antwerp–Dender

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bosuilstadion, Antwerp

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'DenderD. Toshevski (assist: Bryan Goncalves)
76'AntwerpBoubakar Kouyaté (assist: F. Adekami)
88'DenderR. Oratmangoen (assist: Junior Marsoni Sambu Mansoni)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Antwerp		Dender
15	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	3
8	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
404	Passes	354
321	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Antwerp 1.59 · Dender 0.87. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Antwerp 15 · Dender 9; on target 7 and 2.

Referee

Wesli De Cremer, Belgium→

4.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.5%: “Antwerp to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Antwerp, 1.10 for Dender.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (1X — Antwerp win or draw).
These values were computed from 973 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Antwerp to win45.5%

Draw27.8%

Dender to win26.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Antwerp lead at half-time35.8%

Level at half-time44.3%

Dender lead at half-time20.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Antwerp ahead or level80.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Dender ahead64.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 973 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Antwerp: at least 10Actual: 15
Dender: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Antwerp: at least 4Actual: 5
Dender: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Antwerp score1.59

Attack: Antwerp score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dender's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dender score0.87

Attack: Dender score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Antwerp's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–010.3%2–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.