Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 15

Genk–KV Mechelen

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Cegeka Arena, Genk

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 15%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'KV MechelenJosé Marsà (assist: B. Raman)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Genk		KV Mechelen
20	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
66%	Possession	34%
632	Passes	330
540	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Genk 1.85 · KV Mechelen 0.95. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Genk 20 · KV Mechelen 11; on target 6 and 6.
Genk kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Bram Van Driessche, Belgium→

4.13

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.0%: “Genk to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.29 for Genk, 1.07 for KV Mechelen.
The highest double chance value is 85.0% (1X — Genk win or draw).
These values were computed from 972 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Genk to win65.0%

Draw20.0%

KV Mechelen to win15.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

5	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Genk lead at half-time31.9%

Level at half-time43.3%

KV Mechelen lead at half-time24.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Genk ahead or level75.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or KV Mechelen ahead68.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 972 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Genk: at least 9Actual: 5
KV Mechelen: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Genk: at least 6Actual: 6
KV Mechelen: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Genk score1.85

Attack: Genk score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: KV Mechelen's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals KV Mechelen score0.95

Attack: KV Mechelen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Genk's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.8%1–19.4%2–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.