Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 15

Union St. Gilloise–Cercle Brugge

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'Union St. GilloiseP. David (assist: R. Schoofs)
79'Union St. GilloiseR. Florucz (assist: K. Rodríguez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union St. Gilloise		Cercle Brugge
17	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	1
16	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	4
0	Offsides	6
54%	Possession	46%
466	Passes	388
361	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union St. Gilloise 2.17 · Cercle Brugge 0.65. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Union St. Gilloise 17 · Cercle Brugge 8; on target 6 and 1.

Referee

Nicolas Laforge, Belgium→

4.17

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.4%: “Union St. Gilloise to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.16 for Union St. Gilloise, 0.87 for Cercle Brugge.
The highest double chance value is 87.5% (1X — Union St. Gilloise win or draw).
These values were computed from 969 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union St. Gilloise to win67.4%

Draw20.1%

Cercle Brugge to win12.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,040 of 1,528 predictions were correct (68.1%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Union St. Gilloise lead at half-time58.8%

Level at half-time35.1%

Cercle Brugge lead at half-time6.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Union St. Gilloise ahead or level93.8%

12 — not level at half-time64.9%

X2 — level or Cercle Brugge ahead41.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 969 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union St. Gilloise: at least 11Actual: 17
Cercle Brugge: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Union St. Gilloise: at least 5Actual: 7
Cercle Brugge: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score2.17

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Cercle Brugge's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cercle Brugge score0.65

Attack: Cercle Brugge score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.5%2–110.8%1–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.