Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 15

Standard Liege–Zulte Waregem

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 21 November 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'Zulte WaregemT. Nnadi · red card
90'Standard LiegeM. Ilaimaharitra · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Standard Liege		Zulte Waregem
21	Shots	6
8	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	8
5	Corners	3
4	Offsides	1
74%	Possession	26%
611	Passes	221
560	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Standard Liege 1.42 · Zulte Waregem 1.16. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Standard Liege 21 · Zulte Waregem 6; on target 8 and 2.
Standard Liege kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

Lawrence Visser, Belgium→

5.38

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “Standard Liege to win”. Second comes “Zulte Waregem to win” at 33.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Standard Liege, 1.31 for Zulte Waregem.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 968 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Standard Liege to win39.5%

Draw27.5%

Zulte Waregem to win33.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Standard Liege lead at half-time27.2%

Level at half-time43.3%

Zulte Waregem lead at half-time29.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Standard Liege ahead or level70.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Zulte Waregem ahead72.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 968 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Standard Liege: at least 10Actual: 13
Zulte Waregem: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Standard Liege: at least 5Actual: 5
Zulte Waregem: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Standard Liege score1.42

Attack: Standard Liege score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Zulte Waregem concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zulte Waregem score1.16

Attack: Zulte Waregem score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Standard Liege's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–19.5%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.