Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 14

Gent–Genk

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ghelamco Arena, Ghent

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'GenkOh Hyeon-Gyu (assist: K. Karetsas)
56'GentO. Gandelman (assist: T. Araujo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gent		Genk
18	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
40%	Possession	60%
422	Passes	671
357	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gent 1.39 · Genk 1.49. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Gent 18 · Genk 14; on target 4 and 2.
Genk kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Jan Boterberg, Belgium→

3.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.4%: “Genk to win”. Second comes “Gent to win” at 31.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Gent, 1.57 for Genk.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 966 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gent to win31.0%

Draw26.6%

Genk to win42.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	5

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,215 of 3,677 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Gent win or draw57.6%

12 — any result other than a draw73.4%

X2 — draw or Genk win69.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Gent lead at half-time25.1%

Level at half-time40.0%

Genk lead at half-time34.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Gent ahead or level65.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Genk ahead74.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 966 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gent: at least 10Actual: 15
Genk: at least 10Actual: 5

Corners

Gent: at least 4Actual: 6
Genk: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,136 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 53.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gent score1.39

Attack: Gent score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Genk's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genk score1.49

Attack: Genk score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Gent concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–29.9%2–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 966 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 117 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.