Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 14

St. Truiden–Standard Liege

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'St. TruidenK. Goto

Match statistics

Match statistics
St. Truiden		Standard Liege
16	Shots	4
2	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
9	Corners	1
2	Offsides	3
66%	Possession	34%
614	Passes	320
523	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: St. Truiden 1.69 · Standard Liege 0.92. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots St. Truiden 16 · Standard Liege 4; on target 2 and 3.
St. Truiden kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Nicolas Laforge, Belgium→

4.80

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.9%: “St. Truiden to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for St. Truiden, 1.16 for Standard Liege.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (1X — St. Truiden win or draw).
These values were computed from 965 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

St. Truiden to win47.9%

Draw26.4%

Standard Liege to win25.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

St. Truiden lead at half-time31.8%

Level at half-time43.7%

Standard Liege lead at half-time24.6%

First-half double chance

1X — St. Truiden ahead or level75.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Standard Liege ahead68.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 965 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

St. Truiden: at least 10Actual: 8
Standard Liege: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

St. Truiden: at least 5Actual: 9
Standard Liege: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals St. Truiden score1.69

Attack: St. Truiden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Standard Liege's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Standard Liege score0.92

Attack: Standard Liege score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: St. Truiden's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–110.4%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.