Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 14

Antwerp–RAAL La Louvière

3–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bosuilstadion, Antwerp

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'RAAL La LouvièreO. Maes · red card
59'AntwerpV. Janssen (penalty)
63'AntwerpM. Al Sahafi (assist: F. Adekami)
72'AntwerpC. Scott (assist: V. Janssen)
86'RAAL La LouvièreA. Beka Beka (assist: L. Bretelle)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Antwerp		RAAL La Louvière
11	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
69%	Possession	31%
521	Passes	228
446	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Antwerp 1.27 · RAAL La Louvière 0.91. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Antwerp 11 · RAAL La Louvière 6; on target 5 and 1.
Antwerp kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Bram Van Driessche, Belgium→

3.71

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.1%: “Antwerp to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Antwerp, 0.94 for RAAL La Louvière.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (1X — Antwerp win or draw).
These values were computed from 963 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Antwerp to win45.1%

Draw29.9%

RAAL La Louvière to win25.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Antwerp lead at half-time28.5%

Level at half-time44.7%

RAAL La Louvière lead at half-time26.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Antwerp ahead or level73.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or RAAL La Louvière ahead71.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 963 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Antwerp: at least 11Actual: 13
RAAL La Louvière: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Antwerp: at least 4Actual: 7
RAAL La Louvière: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Antwerp score1.27

Attack: Antwerp score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RAAL La Louvière concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals RAAL La Louvière score0.91

Attack: RAAL La Louvière score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Antwerp's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–013.1%0–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.