Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 13

St. Truiden–Antwerp

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 November 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'St. TruidenR. Ito (assist: A. Sissako)
22'AntwerpDaam Foulon · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
St. Truiden		Antwerp
22	Shots	5
9	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
6	Corners	4
4	Offsides	3
71%	Possession	29%
576	Passes	226
522	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: St. Truiden 1.52 · Antwerp 1.09. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots St. Truiden 22 · Antwerp 5; on target 9 and 1.
St. Truiden kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

Nathan Verboomen, Belgium→

4.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.3%: “St. Truiden to win”. Second comes “Antwerp to win” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for St. Truiden, 1.19 for Antwerp.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 958 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

St. Truiden to win45.3%

Draw27.0%

Antwerp to win27.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

St. Truiden lead at half-time27.8%

Level at half-time42.7%

Antwerp lead at half-time29.5%

First-half double chance

1X — St. Truiden ahead or level70.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Antwerp ahead72.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 958 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

St. Truiden: at least 10Actual: 12
Antwerp: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

St. Truiden: at least 4Actual: 6
Antwerp: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals St. Truiden score1.52

Attack: St. Truiden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Antwerp's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Antwerp score1.09

Attack: Antwerp score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: St. Truiden's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–110.2%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.