Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 13

OH Leuven–Gent

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 November 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'OH LeuvenC. Ikwuemesi (assist: Y. Maziz)
43'OH LeuvenŁ. Łakomy
63'OH LeuvenR. Nyakossi
80'OH LeuvenH. Teklab (assist: M. Maertens)
90+4'GentM. Dean · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
OH Leuven		Gent
10	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	9
1	Offsides	1
39%	Possession	61%
329	Passes	511
257	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OH Leuven 1.33 · Gent 1.24. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots OH Leuven 10 · Gent 14; on target 4 and 4.
Gent kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Wesli De Cremer, Belgium→

4.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “OH Leuven to win”. Second comes “Gent to win” at 33.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for OH Leuven, 1.30 for Gent.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 957 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OH Leuven to win39.2%

Draw27.7%

Gent to win33.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

OH Leuven lead at half-time23.3%

Level at half-time42.7%

Gent lead at half-time34.1%

First-half double chance

1X — OH Leuven ahead or level65.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Gent ahead76.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 957 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OH Leuven: at least 11Actual: 14
Gent: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

OH Leuven: at least 4
Gent: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OH Leuven score1.33

Attack: OH Leuven score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gent's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gent score1.24

Attack: Gent score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: OH Leuven's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–19.5%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.