Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 13

KVC Westerlo–Genk

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 November 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Het Kuipje, Westerlo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'GenkOh Hyeon-Gyu (assist: K. Karetsas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
KVC Westerlo		Genk
17	Shots	7
1	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
488	Passes	504
416	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KVC Westerlo 1.51 · Genk 1.48. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots KVC Westerlo 17 · Genk 7; on target 1 and 4.

Referee

Michiel Allaerts, Belgium→

2.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.9%: “Genk to win”. Second comes “KVC Westerlo to win” at 28.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for KVC Westerlo, 1.87 for Genk.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 956 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KVC Westerlo to win28.8%

Draw24.3%

Genk to win46.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	3

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 764 of 1,176 predictions were correct (65.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — KVC Westerlo win or draw53.1%

12 — any result other than a draw75.7%

X2 — draw or Genk win71.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

KVC Westerlo lead at half-time27.6%

Level at half-time39.9%

Genk lead at half-time32.5%

First-half double chance

1X — KVC Westerlo ahead or level67.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Genk ahead72.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 956 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KVC Westerlo: at least 10Actual: 7
Genk: at least 10Actual: 3

Corners

KVC Westerlo: at least 4Actual: 4
Genk: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals65.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 969 of 1,384 predictions were correct (70.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 53.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KVC Westerlo score1.51

Attack: KVC Westerlo score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Genk's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genk score1.48

Attack: Genk score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: KVC Westerlo's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%1–210.1%2–17.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 956 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 106 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.